
CBOT soybean futures fell to two-year lows below $12 per bushel on January 29, 2024, as South American harvest prospects improved for Argentina and Brazil. Corn and wheat also declined as crude oil fell and the U.S. dollar strengthened.
Chinese demand concerns deepened amid a real estate crisis, including a Hong Kong court ordering liquidation of China Evergrande.
Expectations of larger South American crops increase global supply, and weaker Chinese demand reduces import pull, both pressuring soybean and meal prices. Bigger Brazilian supply could also limit U.S. export opportunities.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 118 past bearish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -3.2% to +0.4%), and -1.6% over 20.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.