
CBOT soybeans rose to $11.96 per bushel on higher oil prices and rain forecasts that could slow Midwest planting, with corn up 0.4% and wheat slightly lower. US crude rose despite a US announcement extending the Iran ceasefire, and the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed.
Expected planting delays and energy-linked support lift grain prices, while elevated nitrogen fertilizer costs continue to shift acreage away from corn.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 40 past bullish weather events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.6% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -3.7% to +5.3%), and +6.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.