USDA crop scouts reported North Dakota winter wheat rated 86% good or excellent after rains, while Montana improved to 41% good or excellent. The national winter wheat rating rose only 2 points to 32% good or excellent, the weakest for this time of year since 1995, with Kansas at 24%.
A historically poor HRW crop rating in Kansas supports hard wheat futures and the premium over SRW, raising feed wheat costs for buyers if dryness persists.
After 322 past bullish weather events, KWHEAT moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 224 past neutral weather events, WHEAT moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.