
Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat futures posted double-digit gains to start the week, with winter wheat hitting its best levels since summer. Drivers cited include dryness in Australia and Argentina, Argentina's export tax increase, Texas drought, and improving US-China and USMCA trade sentiment.
Wet seeding conditions limited US winter wheat plantings, and harvest weather hurt North Dakota spring wheat quality.
Multiple supply concerns from major exporters and weaker US crops tighten wheat supplies and support prices. Analysts expect further upside.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.