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Wheat futures rallied sharply on Monday and were higher overnight on dryness across the US southern Plains and southern Russia, plus an EU freeze forecast. USDA cut the US winter wheat rating to 50% good to excellent from 55%, and planting progress and export data were also reported.
Dryness in key wheat areas and a freeze risk in Europe reduce expected crop output, supporting wheat prices and competing feed grain values, while US corn export strength supports corn.
admis.comSteve FreedApr 23, 2024After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Describes the sharp wheat rally on southern Plains and Russian dryness, an EU freeze forecast and the USDA rating cut, which is the same supply-weather driver, though it largely duplicates the other reports.
