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Freezing temperatures in Argentina's main agricultural region aggravated the 2024/25 wheat crop, which is already hit by drought. The Rosario exchange cut its planted-area forecast 2.9% to 6.7 million hectares, and the Pergamino area has seen seedling losses.
Overnight futures closed lower for wheat, corn, soybeans and soymeal.
Argentine wheat losses tighten global wheat supply and support prices, while the day's lower futures reflect routine market moves rather than a new supply cause.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 184 past bullish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
