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Rabobank projects wheat prices in Q1 2022 about 40% above the five-year average, with global wheat at near-2013 highs as feed buyers switch from expensive corn. Brazil's corn deficit, record domestic prices and suspension of its import tariff on non-Mercosur corn are driving the tightness, and dryness has cut safrinha yield potential.
Feed buyers substituting wheat for corn lifts wheat demand, and Brazil's corn shortfall and tariff suspension support imports and global feed grain prices through 2022.
theland.com.auCheryl Kalisch Gordon, RabobankMay 13, 2021After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
