Drought hampering Black Sea crop sowing sparks light in wheat prices

After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

• May 13, 2021A"maize"ing global support for wheat prices | The Land | NSW-1.8%
• Mar 18, 2025CBOT wheat prices rise amid moisture shortage in the Black Sea region-1.0%
• Jul 29, 2021Black Sea wheat price surges as dry weather slashes crop outlooks - Fastmarkets+2.2%
• Mar 13, 2018Drought threat intensifies for U.S. Plains winter wheat crop-1.6%
• May 22, 2024Black Sea, Canadian wheat prices surge on weather, crop fears | S&P Global-7.4%

After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Mar 18, 2025CBOT wheat prices rise amid moisture shortage in the Black Sea region-4.5%
• Jul 29, 2021Black Sea wheat price surges as dry weather slashes crop outlooks - Fastmarkets+5.3%
• Mar 13, 2018Drought threat intensifies for U.S. Plains winter wheat crop-7.6%
• May 22, 2024Black Sea, Canadian wheat prices surge on weather, crop fears | S&P Global+2.6%
• Mar 31, 2026Wheat Prices Surge on US Drought and Planting Uncertainty-3.0%