
CBOT wheat futures rose for the week of March 8 to 14, with SRW wheat up 12 US cents to 545.6 cents per bushel. A moisture deficit in the Black Sea region could hurt the winter wheat crop.
The report was published on March 18, 2025.
Dryness in the Black Sea winter wheat region raises the risk of lower yields and supports global wheat prices. Weekly gains in CBOT wheat reflect this weather premium.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.