
Black Sea corn and wheat prices rose significantly on 31 October 2021, according to Agritel. Russia's agriculture ministry cut its 2021 grain crop forecast to 123 million tonnes from 127.4 million, with wheat at 75 to 75.5 million tonnes.
Dry conditions in Ukraine and Russia have delayed winter plantings.
Dryness that delays winter sowing and cuts the crop forecast reduces expected Black Sea export supply, which supports wheat and corn prices.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Russia cut its grain crop forecast and dry weather delayed winter plantings in Russia and Ukraine, tightening Black Sea supply.