
Chicago September SRW wheat futures traded above $7 per bushel on July 29 but failed to reach mid-July highs. Black Sea wheat prices caught up with the bullish trend in Europe and North America.
North Dakota dryness continued, with spring wheat yields possibly down about a third from recent averages.
Rising wheat prices in Chicago and the Black Sea reflect tighter northern hemisphere supply, which supports feed grain prices. Weak export sales for old-crop corn limit further gains.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.