◂ Event Timeline

Feb 21, 2022WEATHEREurope

Dry winter in much of Europe and North Africa

The EU Joint Research Centre's February crop monitoring bulletin says winter crops are in good condition across most of Europe. Drought is affecting southern Portugal, southern Spain, south-eastern France and north-western Italy, where soil moisture is below average.

WHY IT MATTERS

Persistent dryness in Mediterranean growing areas raises the risk of lower wheat and barley yields if rain does not arrive in coming weeks. Current conditions are mostly favourable, so the price impact is limited for now.

AFFECTSWheat (SRW)▲Barley▲

SOURCE
joint-research-centre.ec.europa.euFeb 21, 2022

Price reaction & history

Wheat (SRW)▲bullishSO FAR1d +1.8%5d +2.8%20d +11.9%

After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

May 15, 2019The price of wheat in the United States and Europe has increased dramatically+11.2%
Jul 30, 2021Wheat rose in Chicago, Black Sea origins caught up with bullish trend in Europe and North America — Latifundist.com+1.6%
Jun 20, 2017Heatwave damages French wheat crops, rain helps in northern Europe-0.9%
Feb 19, 2020The reduction in sowing areas of winter wheat in the EU almost does not reduce the crop in the new season-1.6%
Feb 1, 2021Dryness prevails in North America, western Asia | 2021-02-01 | World Grain-10.0%

Barley▲bullish

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Wheat (SRW) WHEAT · GP ▸

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Barley BARLEY · GP ▸

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