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French agriculture ministry experts and Strategie Grains estimate French winter wheat area down 5.6% to 4.7 million hectares after heavy autumn rains delayed planting, with French wheat output seen at 33.8 million tonnes versus 39.5 million in 2019. Germany plans a 7.1% acreage cut to 2.83 million hectares, though crops are in good condition.
Lower EU wheat output in France and the UK tightens export supply expectations, which is supportive for wheat prices, though warm winter conditions and good German prospects limit the size of the cut. A sharp frost on poorly hardened crops is the main upside risk.
graintrade.com.uaFeb 19, 2020After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
