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Heavy snow and freezing temperatures in mid-May flattened and lodged winter wheat across Colorado, western Kansas and parts of Nebraska. New-crop wheat futures climbed as much as 20 cents per bushel after the storm.
Crop tours also pointed to lower yields.
Lodging and crop damage reduce expected 2017/18 wheat production and ending stocks, supporting prices above the projected $4.30 per bushel. Lodging also raises disease risk, adding further yield uncertainty.
aginfo.netMay 18, 2017After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Mid-May snow and freeze damage to Plains winter wheat, with lower yield estimates, tightened supply expectations and lifted new-crop futures, which likely spilled over into SRW.
