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Dec 2, 2019WEATHERAustralia

ABARES crop report forecasts winter production slump for third year in a row

ABARES forecasts Australia's 2019-20 winter crop at 29.4 million tonnes, down 13% from its spring forecast and about 27% below the 10-year average. It would be the third straight annual decline and the smallest national grain crop in 12 years.

WHY IT MATTERS

A drought-driven shortfall in Australian wheat, barley and canola tightens export supplies for feed buyers, supporting prices for competing origins and Australian feed grains.

AFFECTSWheat (SRW)▲Barley▲Canola Meal▲

SOURCE
abc.net.auDec 2, 2019

Price reaction & history

Wheat (SRW)▲bullishSO FAR1d -0.4%5d -0.7%20d -1.9%

After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

Dec 10, 2019Ag production falls for third year in row: ABARES - Grain Central+2.5%
Sep 12, 2017Forecast decrease for winter crop production: ABARES - Grain Central+1.0%
Sep 11, 2018Drought bites in the east as ABARES forecasts 12pc cut to grain production - ABC News-7.4%
Sep 17, 2019ABARES slashes grain production forecasts | The Land | NSW+2.4%
Mar 5, 2018Weather to blame for falling farmer incomes and production, commodity forecaster ABARES says - ABC News+0.8%

Barley▲bullish

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

Canola Meal▲bullish

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Wheat (SRW) WHEAT · GP ▸

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Barley BARLEY · GP ▸

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