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Grain markets rallied in the second half of April as weather and geopolitical premiums returned to corn and wheat. US winter wheat was rated 27% good-to-excellent and 37% poor-to-very poor, while North Dakota and Minnesota remained snow-covered and frosty, delaying planting and raising the prospect of a 1 to 2 million acre swing in crop mix.
Late planting in the northern Plains and poor HRW conditions support prices, and the acreage shift could tighten corn, soybean and spring wheat balances.
albertagrains.comApr 17, 2023After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
