
Strong winds, low humidity and above-average temperatures left nearly one-quarter of US winter wheat in poor or very poor condition as it entered dormancy. The rating is the worst since 2012 and the second-worst on record, and topsoil moisture is low.
Poor winter wheat condition and dry soils raise the risk of a smaller US HRW crop, which supports wheat prices and the cost of wheat used in feed.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.