
Strategie Grains reports heavy rain is hampering EU winter grain sowing, particularly in France, cutting planted soft wheat area. The EU-27 2024 soft wheat area is estimated 0.9% below 2023, and yields could fall short of potential.
The consultancy raised its 2023 maize estimate to 61 million tonnes and its 2023 soft wheat estimate to 125.8 million tonnes.
Reduced planted area and possible yield losses point to a smaller EU wheat crop in 2024, which supports wheat prices and tightens feed wheat availability.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.