
Russia's Black Sea winter wheat harvest is progressing, with more than 40% complete and average yields near 3.5 t/ha. Hot, extremely dry weather across Siberia and Kazakhstan has raised concern that spring wheat yields will fall short of forecasts.
Russia's harvest totalled 35.3 million tonnes.
Lower-than-forecast Russian and Kazakh spring wheat yields would tighten export supplies and support wheat prices.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.