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Historic heat, dryness and frost have damaged Russia's winter wheat crop over several weeks, slashing harvest estimates for the top global wheat exporter. The shortfall has sparked a healthy rally in global wheat prices.
A smaller Russian crop tightens global wheat supply and lifts world prices, which can shift import demand toward US corn and other feed grains as substitutes.
reuters.comKaren BraunMay 22, 2024After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Heat, dryness and frost cut Russian winter wheat harvest estimates, sparking a global price rally.
