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Russian winter grains are reported to be in the worst condition on record, while Ukraine's shipping capacity could come under threat. Ukrainian grain exports through Romania's Constanta fell 52% in the first 10 months of 2024 as Ukraine relied more on its own ports.
Poor Russian crop condition could tighten wheat supplies from a top exporter, supporting wheat prices, while port risks could add freight and logistics costs for Black Sea grain.
reuters.comKaren BraunDec 6, 2024After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
