Wheat Tour Sees Short Crop; Black Sea Grain Deal Prevents Rally

After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.

• May 18, 2018GRAINS-U.S. wheat futures rally; corn, soy firm on hopes for export deal+5.8%
• Mar 18, 2025CBOT wheat prices rise amid moisture shortage in the Black Sea region-4.5%
• Dec 6, 2024Dire Russian crop health and Ukraine export risks threaten Black Sea wheat | Reuters+1.9%
• May 22, 2024Black Sea, Canadian wheat prices surge on weather, crop fears | S&P Global+2.6%
• May 5, 2020UK to see smallest wheat crops in decades: Carr’s Flour monthly Wheat Report+2.5%

After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Dec 6, 2022Competitive Black Sea wheat pressuring prices, explained: Grain market daily | AHDB+9.9%
• Apr 23, 2019Wheat values driven by supply side - Grain Central-4.2%
• Nov 12, 2018WA winter crop surges back to 15.653Mt - Grain Central-0.2%
• Oct 28, 2019Victorian tour puts wheat, barley yields above ABARES’: GIAV - Grain Central-0.2%
• Jun 28, 2019Feedgrain Focus: CQ wheat guides new-crop pricing - Beef Central-8.5%