Feedlots pricing new-crop wheat are basing bids on Central Queensland wheat due from September, where crops were planted on time into good moisture and benefited from follow-up rains. A trade source expects Sep-Oct Downs wheat to fall to $390-$400/t from current $420-$430/t, while January 2020 delivered Downs wheat is quoted at $380-385/t.
Yield prospects in northern NSW remain uncertain without further soaking rain.
Good CQ planting conditions and expected harvest supply point to cheaper new-crop wheat for feedlots, pressuring the old-crop premium on the Downs. Buyers should expect lower feed wheat costs into the 2020 season if rains hold.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.