Grain Brokers Australia says global grain markets are being driven by production, with the northern hemisphere wheat crop looking good and getting bigger. It notes that the crop is still early and that June-August moisture during grain fill will be decisive.
It also flags slow US spring wheat planting due to wet fields.
A larger expected northern hemisphere wheat crop adds supply and pressures wheat prices, though late-season weather could still change the outlook.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.