
Carr's Flour's monthly report expects one of the smallest UK wheat crops in many decades due to reduced plantings and dry conditions in the UK and much of Western Europe. It also notes that COVID-19 will reduce local and global wheat demand.
A much smaller UK harvest would tighten domestic feed wheat supply and likely lift UK wheat prices, while weaker demand partly offsets the effect.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.