
ABARES downgraded Australia's winter crop by 12 per cent from its September estimate to 29.3 million tonnes, with wheat at 17 million tonnes, the lowest since 2008. Canola is forecast down 39 per cent to 2.2 million tonnes, and Western Australia is carrying over half of national production.
Canola's sharp drop reduces Australian meal supply to export markets, and the wheat shortfall means more transshipments from Western Australia, which supports prices for feed buyers.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.