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Western Australia cut its wheat estimate by 470,000 t to 5.38 Mt, and USDA lowered Australia's crop to 16.1 Mt. Traders now talk of a national crop below 15 Mt and wheat exports at a 12-year low of 9.22 Mt.
Shrinking Australian exports and a possible sub-15 Mt crop tighten wheat supply to Asian feed buyers, supporting wheat prices.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.