
Analysts now expect Australia's national winter crop to be the smallest since 2006-07 because of a strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole and well below-average rainfall. Western Australia faces a drop of about 5 million tonnes in wheat and barley, and a record frost in Esperance has added to concerns.
Expected losses of this size in a major exporter tighten global wheat and barley supply, supporting prices for feed buyers who import these grains.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.