
Wheat futures fell on August 22, with Chicago SRW down 2.6%, Kansas City HRW down 1.9%, Minneapolis HRS down 1.6% and Paris down 2.4%, as harvest completion and a higher Russian harvest forecast weighed. SovEcon raised its Russian wheat forecast to 83.3 mln t while cutting Russian corn and barley.
A larger Russian crop pressures Black Sea export prices, though a cut in Russian corn and barley could raise feed wheat demand later in the season.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 70 past bearish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and -1.1% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.