
US and Canadian farmers are bracing for a sharply smaller spring wheat harvest after the driest conditions in decades. Heat and dryness are damaging crops across several regions, including the US Pacific Northwest and Brazil.
A smaller spring wheat crop in North America reduces milling supply and raises the risk of tighter wheat prices and reduced wheat availability for feed use. This supports higher wheat values into the new crop marketing period.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.