
World wheat futures were generally lower over the week, except Australia, which was drought-stricken. Argentina's harvest was 46% complete with 2019 production estimated at 18.5m tonnes versus 19.5m last year, and Canada's wheat output was estimated at 32.348mmt.
Egypt bought Russian wheat at US$235-236/mt, and Algeria bought 500k tonnes for February delivery.
Wet weather in France and Argentina's lower crop plus firm import tenders from Egypt and Algeria point to tighter export supply and modest price support for wheat.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.