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Rabobank says the wheat market is 'on fire' because Russia and Ukraine supply nearly 30% of global wheat exports, world wheat stocks are the lowest since 2006/07, US spring wheat acres are down, and southern Plains drought is intensifying. Rabobank models a scenario in which US wheat averages near $10.60/bu for 2022/23.
Converging supply losses in the US Plains and Black Sea point to sustained upward pressure on wheat prices, which lifts feed-wheat and substitute grain costs.
foodnavigator.comElaine WatsonApr 22, 2022After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
