Tight global wheat story is stuck on repeat, supporting market bears

After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.

• May 31, 2022Insight: U.S. wheat crop hit by dry winter then soggy spring, adding to global tightness | Reuters-5.3%
• Apr 22, 2022Rabobank: ‘The wheat market is on fire’-0.1%
• Dec 10, 2019What Surprises Are Stirring the Global Wheat Markets? | CZ app+12.3%
• Nov 22, 2021Wheat soars to 9-year peak on supply concerns, strong demand | Reuters+2.3%
• Mar 9, 2022US Winter Wheat Production Won’t Ease Tight Global Supplies-2.4%

After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

• May 31, 2022Insight: U.S. wheat crop hit by dry winter then soggy spring, adding to global tightness | Reuters-1.4%
• Jun 16, 2022Internal woes blunt Argentina’s wheat export clout amid tight global supplies - Fastmarkets-2.3%
• Apr 22, 2022Rabobank: ‘The wheat market is on fire’+8.5%
• May 13, 2021A"maize"ing global support for wheat prices | The Land | NSW-1.8%
• Dec 10, 2019What Surprises Are Stirring the Global Wheat Markets? | CZ app+2.5%