Insight: U.S. wheat crop hit by dry winter then soggy spring, adding to global tightness

After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Mar 13, 2018Drought threat intensifies for U.S. Plains winter wheat crop-1.6%
• Sep 14, 2023Tight global wheat story is stuck on repeat, supporting market bears | Reuters+0.5%
• Apr 13, 2022U.S. Hard Red Winter Wheat in Drought Adds Supply Concerns-0.5%
• Sep 22, 2020Drought hampering Black Sea crop sowing sparks light in wheat prices | The Land | NSW+5.6%
• Mar 9, 2022US Winter Wheat Production Won’t Ease Tight Global Supplies-3.1%

After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Mar 13, 2018Drought threat intensifies for U.S. Plains winter wheat crop-7.6%
• Sep 14, 2023Tight global wheat story is stuck on repeat, supporting market bears | Reuters-1.1%
• Apr 13, 2022U.S. Hard Red Winter Wheat in Drought Adds Supply Concerns+0.1%
• Sep 22, 2020Drought hampering Black Sea crop sowing sparks light in wheat prices | The Land | NSW-0.9%
• Mar 9, 2022US Winter Wheat Production Won’t Ease Tight Global Supplies-2.4%