US Winter Wheat Production Won’t Ease Tight Global Supplies

After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Mar 29, 2021Outlook Dims for Global Spring Wheat Production-0.9%
• Dec 13, 2018Global Production Continues to Decrease Due to Weather Problems in Australia and Russia - U.S. Wheat Associates+5.1%
• Sep 21, 2017U.S. winter wheat plantings might be smaller | The Western Producer+2.5%
• Aug 2, 2023Weather woes, Russia upend outlook for global wheat suppliers | Reuters-4.2%
• Sep 14, 2023Tight global wheat story is stuck on repeat, supporting market bears | Reuters-1.1%

After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Mar 29, 2021Outlook Dims for Global Spring Wheat Production-0.5%
• Jun 16, 2022Internal woes blunt Argentina’s wheat export clout amid tight global supplies - Fastmarkets-2.3%
• May 6, 2021Corn jumps 1.2% to 2013 high on tightening global supplies; wheat firms+4.6%
• Feb 17, 2022Dry Conditions Continue Affecting Global Wheat Production+3.9%
• Dec 13, 2018Global Production Continues to Decrease Due to Weather Problems in Australia and Russia - U.S. Wheat Associates+2.5%