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USDA cut its 2021/22 global wheat production estimate by over 2 million tonnes in February, with drought reducing crops in Iran, Syria, Iraq, Turkey and Egypt. These Middle Eastern countries are expected to import 35.5 million tonnes, increasing reliance on Russian supply.
Higher import demand from drought-hit Middle Eastern countries tightens global wheat balances and supports wheat prices.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.