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USDA's April 20 crop progress report rated 30% of the US winter wheat crop good to excellent, down from 34% the prior week and 45% two weeks earlier. Analysts say rain is needed soon, and tensions between the US and Iran are also affecting the wheat market.
Soft white wheat traded at $6.15 a bushel in Portland.
Falling crop ratings in the Southern Plains point to smaller hard red winter wheat output, which supports prices. Analysts note ample carry-in stocks limit the upside unless losses are large.
capitalpress.comMatthew WeaverApr 22, 2026After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Crop ratings dropping to 30% G/E and the need for rain, plus US-Iran tensions, raised supply risk and risk premium.
