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A North Dakota analyst said wheat could rise 50 to 60 cents per bushel if the Southern Plains do not get significant rain. Parts of Oklahoma and Texas have had no rain for four months, and Northern Plains rainfall is at its lowest since 1991.
He added that fund buying could amplify any rally.
The forecast is conditional on continued drought, but a sustained dry spell would tighten HRW supply and lift prices. Fund buying could make moves sharper.
capitalpress.comMatthew WeaverFeb 8, 2018After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
