
Fastmarkets reports that fertilizer prices, adverse weather and political uncertainty are limiting Argentina's wheat export potential. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimates the 2022-23 wheat crop at 20.5 million tonnes, down from 22.4 million in 2021-22, with 30% of the area planted as of June 8.
A smaller Argentine wheat crop and slower planting reduce exportable supply in a tight global market, supporting world wheat prices.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.