Dryness has affected about one-fifth of Argentina's Pampas growing area, according to Eduardo Sierra. He cut his wheat forecast to 17 million tonnes from 20 million, corn to 40 million tonnes, and soy to 50 million, and growers are shifting into soybeans ahead of the October 27 presidential vote.
Lower wheat and corn output and a shift toward soybean planting tighten coarse grain supplies and support corn and wheat prices, while safe-haven soy buying supports soybean values.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.