
USDA forecasts Brazil will export 21.5 million tonnes of soybean meal in 2023, up 6%, and become the world's largest meal exporter ahead of Argentina. Argentina's meal exports are forecast to fall 20% after drought cut its crop, with crush forecast at 21.4 million tonnes from 30 million.
Argentina's drought-driven drop removes meal supply from the world market, while Brazil's larger exports offset part of it. Net, meal supply is steady to slightly firmer for importers.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.