Weather woes, Russia upend outlook for global wheat suppliers

After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Mar 29, 2021Outlook Dims for Global Spring Wheat Production-0.5%
• Dec 26, 2023Global 2024 staple food supplies to be strained by dry weather, export curbs | Reuters+3.2%
• Sep 23, 2024Wheat Extends Gains on Tight Supply Outlook Due to Poor Weather - Bloomberg+11.3%
• Mar 9, 2022US Winter Wheat Production Won’t Ease Tight Global Supplies-3.1%
• Jul 30, 2021Adverse global weather creates potent bull market for wheat+1.6%

After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Mar 29, 2021Outlook Dims for Global Spring Wheat Production-0.9%
• Sep 23, 2024Wheat Extends Gains on Tight Supply Outlook Due to Poor Weather - Bloomberg+2.3%
• Mar 9, 2022US Winter Wheat Production Won’t Ease Tight Global Supplies-2.4%
• Sep 14, 2023Tight global wheat story is stuck on repeat, supporting market bears | Reuters-1.1%
• May 22, 2024Black Sea, Canadian wheat prices surge on weather, crop fears | S&P Global+2.6%