Drought in southern and central Ukraine has cut the sunflower harvest forecast to 14-14.5 million tonnes from an earlier 15.5-16.5 million. Sunflower oil rose $60-70 per tonne to $830-840 FOB, and US soybean oil futures climbed on a lower soybean crop outlook.
A materially smaller Ukrainian sunflower crop tightens global vegetable oil and sunflower meal supply, supporting prices across the oilseed complex.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 184 past bullish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.