
Farmers in the Upper Midwest began small grains planting in late March, with oats planting ahead of normal in Minnesota and Iowa. Growers are weighing crop switches as input costs keep rising.
Rising input costs could shift acres away from corn toward small grains, which affects oat and barley supply expectations later in the season.
After 16 past neutral weather events, Oats moved a median +0.8% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.