Loading…
Purdue researchers say a 97-98% probability of El Niño persisting through 2026 and a peak Niño3.4 anomaly near 2.5-2.6°C. They identify converging pressures on vegetable oils from biofuel demand and El Niño-driven palm and oilseed supply losses, while cautioning against extending this to grains.
Reduced palm oil yields in Southeast Asia combined with biofuel-driven soybean oil demand point to firmer vegetable oil prices. Grain effects are described as more mixed.
ag.purdue.eduMorgan FrenchAug 1, 2026After 181 past bullish weather events, PALMOIL moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 184 past bullish weather events, SBO moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
