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US forecasters say El Niño is favored to emerge in the Pacific by September, with the Climate Prediction Center assigning a 62% chance. The shift could raise global temperatures and disrupt crops in the coming months.
El Niño raises the risk of drought in Australia, India, Southeast Asia and parts of South America, which can tighten grain and oilseed supplies later in 2026. Markets may add a weather premium, but the impact is months away.
bloomberg.comLauren RosenthalMar 12, 2026After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
