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Bloomberg reports rising odds that a strong El Niño will emerge in the coming months and strengthen through the year. The report warns of threats to global crop supplies, shifts in storm patterns and temperatures pushing toward record highs.
Expectations of a strengthening El Niño raise the risk of crop losses in key producing regions later in 2026, which supports grain prices through risk premium.
bloomberg.comBrian K SullivanMay 14, 2026After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
