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The US Climate Prediction Center's outlook gives a 25% chance that El Nino becomes very strong. The forecast points to global weather and crop disruption, including in Vietnam and Brazil.
Rising odds of a strong El Nino raise the risk of crop losses in Southeast Asia and Brazil, supporting grain and rice prices over the coming season.
bloomberg.comLauren RosenthalApr 9, 2026After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
