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BBC Weather reports growing confidence that the developing El Niño could be one of the strongest on record, possibly peaking as a very strong event in autumn. NOAA gives a two-in-three chance of strong or very strong El Niño by winter.
Scientists warn of record global temperatures and humanitarian impacts, including a likely record-warm 2027.
A very strong El Niño peaking in autumn would raise the risk of crop shortfalls in multiple regions during the 2026-27 season, supporting wheat and other grain prices.
bbc.comSimon KingJun 1, 2026After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
