◂ Event Timeline

May 24, 2023WEATHERUS

The U.S. Now Has a Nearly 90% Chance of Seeing El Niño This Summer

NOAA reports that El Niño signals strengthened in May 2023, with the likelihood of El Niño approaching 90% by summer. USDA's May forecast already assumed normal or favorable weather for record corn and soybean yields.

Forecasters say weather is the main risk to the new crop balance sheets.

WHY IT MATTERS

El Niño often brings a weather shift to the US and other key grain regions, adding uncertainty to yield assumptions and supporting risk premiums in corn and soybean prices.

AFFECTSCorn▲Soybeans▲Wheat (SRW)▲

SOURCE
agweb.comTyne MorganMay 24, 2023

Price reaction & history

Corn▲bullishSO FAR1d +1.0%5d -3.4%20d -0.1%

After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

Mar 13, 2026El Niño Watch: 62% Chance of Arrival This Summer, But Drew Lerner Warns Extreme Forecasts May Be Overblown - AgWeb+4.1%
Jan 21, 2026Timing of La Niña Exit, El Niño Entrance is Unclear, Raising Questions About Dryness for Spring and Summer - AgWeb+0.8%
Oct 2, 2026Record El Niño Behind Historic Rains Stalling Harvest Across the U.S. - AgWeb-1.6%
May 19, 2017El Niño again? This is why it’s hard to tell. | Climate Change+1.3%
May 14, 2026US forecaster says El Nino has 82% chance of developing by July | Reuters-0.4%

Soybeans▲bullishSO FAR1d +0.2%5d -1.7%20d +13.5%

After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.

Mar 13, 2026El Niño Watch: 62% Chance of Arrival This Summer, But Drew Lerner Warns Extreme Forecasts May Be Overblown - AgWeb-3.7%
Jan 21, 2026Timing of La Niña Exit, El Niño Entrance is Unclear, Raising Questions About Dryness for Spring and Summer - AgWeb+1.4%
Oct 2, 2026Record El Niño Behind Historic Rains Stalling Harvest Across the U.S. - AgWeb+0.3%
May 19, 2017El Niño again? This is why it’s hard to tell. | Climate Change-0.6%
May 14, 2026US forecaster says El Nino has 82% chance of developing by July | Reuters-1.3%

Wheat (SRW)▲bullishSO FAR1d -0.4%5d -2.4%20d -2.7%

After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

Mar 13, 2026El Niño Watch: 62% Chance of Arrival This Summer, But Drew Lerner Warns Extreme Forecasts May Be Overblown - AgWeb-0.2%
Mar 14, 2024US forecaster sees higher chance of La Nina conditions this summer | Reuters+0.4%
May 19, 2017El Niño again? This is why it’s hard to tell. | Climate Change+3.0%
Jun 1, 2026Record global temperatures possible as chance of a 'super El Niño' grows-2.6%
Mar 9, 2017El Nino may arrive this summer and fall+0.7%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Corn CORN · GP ▸

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Soybeans SOY · GP ▸

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